Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Roguelike?

Roguelike + Western

Of 36 developers who shipped a Western Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×223 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 36 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $2.3k → $8.4k → $9.6k → $4.2k → $299 (still earning) → $683 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,144)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,194)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 62
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Procedural Generation, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,996 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
West of Dead older $19.99 1,289 76% 39k $773k (exactly $773,013) Upstream Arcade
Colt Canyon older $14.99 1,543 90% 46k $694k (exactly $693,887) Retrific
Wild Bastards older $34.99 616 74% 18k $647k (exactly $646,615) Blue Manchu
Bounty of One older $6.99 2,749 88% 82k $576k (exactly $576,465) OptizOnion
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Super Amazing Wagon Adventure older $2.99 1,638 95% 49k $147k (exactly $146,929) sparsevector
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Dust & Neon older $14.99 284 76% 8.5k $128k (exactly $127,715) David Marquardt Studios
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
Graveyard Gunslingers $7.99 224 58% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,693) PyroPhysics
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
Gold Miner:Classic Edition $3.99 350 82% 11k $42k (exactly $41,895) GameRival
Brawl To The West $8.99 139 71% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) GagaRush
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Barrel Roll $4.99 188 96% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Barrel Roll
Boogey Hunters $6.99 46 84% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Keep The Engine Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.