Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Roguelike?

Roguelike + War

Of 92 developers who shipped a War Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2111 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 157 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 157 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 92
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.3k → $958 → $5.4k → $2.2k → $7.1k → $1.2k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 92
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,903)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716)
Developers, 2 yr 92
Released games 186
Announced 157
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 26,570 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sifu 2023 · $26M Project Wingman 2020 · $14M Bad North: Jotunn Edition 2018 · $5.6M Bomber Crew 2017 · $5.0M Tower Dominion 2025 · $2.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Bad North: Jotunn Edition older $14.99 12,344 93% 370k $5.6M (exactly $5,551,097) Plausible Concept, Oskar Stålberg
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
The Rogue Prince of Persia $29.99 2,393 89% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,982) Evil Empire
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
FrostBound $14.99 1,196 82% 36k $538k (exactly $537,841) Lyra Studio
Axon TD: Uprising - Tower Defense $19.99 706 85% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Element Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.