Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Villain Protagonist
Should I ship a Villain-Led Roguelike?
Roguelike + Villain Protagonist
Only 9 developers shipped a Villain-Led Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×521 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.8k (exactly $4,794) |
| Top 25% | $41k (exactly $41,359) |
| Top 5% | $248k (exactly $247,552) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 80,526 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + VampiresFair
- + DogsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + IdlerFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
Comparable games
Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021 · $30M 
Iratus: Lord of the Dead 2020 · $6.5M 
Luck be a Landlord 2023 · $3.1M 
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager 2021 · $2.4M 
KeeperRL 2024 · $1.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Skul: The Hero Slayer | older | $19.99 | 50,801 93% | 1.5M | $30M (exactly $30,465,360) | SOUTHPAW GAMES |
| | Iratus: Lord of the Dead | older | $29.99 | 7,206 84% | 216k | $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) | Unfrozen |
| | Luck be a Landlord | older | $9.99 | 10,213 93% | 306k | $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) | TrampolineTales |
| | Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager | older | $19.99 | 3,939 79% | 118k | $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) | Goblinz Studio |
| | KeeperRL | older | $19.99 | 1,677 83% | 50k | $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) | Electric Succubi |
 | Be My Horde | · EA older | $9.99 | 2,052 85% | 62k | $615k (exactly $614,984) | Polished Games |
 | Infectonator 3: Apocalypse | older | $12.99 | 1,250 83% | 38k | $487k (exactly $487,125) | Toge Productions |
 | The Unliving | older | $16.99 | 762 62% | 23k | $388k (exactly $388,391) | RocketBrush Games |
 | Pizza Possum | older | $6.99 | 1,800 93% | 54k | $377k (exactly $377,460) | Friedemann, Noio Games |
 | Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival | $9.99 | 826 77% | 25k | $248k (exactly $247,552) | RetroStyle Games | |
 | Few Nights More | $14.99 | 382 81% | 11k | $172k (exactly $171,785) | Aeterna Ludi | |
 | Lords of Ravage | $9.99 | 138 66% | 4.1k | $41k (exactly $41,359) | Synthetic Domain | |
 | My Infamous Dungeon | $14.99 | 63 76% | 1.9k | $28k (exactly $28,331) | BoxFox Studios | |
 | Tome of the Damned | $7.99 | 20 60% | 600 | $4.8k (exactly $4,794) | Redtower Games | |
 | Reverse Survivors | $3.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $479 (exactly $479) | Holiver Studios | |
 | Yes, My Warlord | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Staple Studios | |
 | RnGesus Slayer | $7.00 | 1 100% | 30 | $210 (exactly $210) | Lemon Chihuahua | |
 | Slay The Hero | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Emerald Knight Interactive LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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