Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Roguelike?

Roguelike + Logic

Of 141 developers who shipped a Logic Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 168 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 168 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 168 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 141
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.2k → $1.3k → $5.7k → $359 → $719 → $599 (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 141
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $77k (exactly $76,723)
Developers, 2 yr 141
Released games 229
Announced 168
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,388 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 52 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 168 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
GWENT: Rogue Mage (Single-Player Expansion) older $9.99 1,266 54% 38k $379k (exactly $379,420) CD PROJEKT RED
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Let's! Revolution! older $19.99 317 92% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) BUCK Games, Antfood
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Wordatro! $9.99 401 85% 12k $120k (exactly $120,180) Le Poulet
Q REMASTERED older $8.99 423 82% 13k $114k (exactly $114,083) liica, Inc.
BroomSweeper $17.99 193 75% 5.8k $104k (exactly $104,162) BandsWithLegends
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏
Infinity Sweeper $9.99 256 59% 7.7k $77k (exactly $76,723) Longshot Studio
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
Scratch the Ticket $9.99 183 44% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) Shilenok

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.