Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Roguelike?

Roguelike + Top-Down Shooter

Of 459 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 615 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×663 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 615 games are announced against 258 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 615 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 459
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.3k → $1.1k → $1.7k → $1.7k → $718 → $539 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 459
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,661)
Top 5% $315k (exactly $314,834)
Developers, 2 yr 459
Released games 1,020
Announced 615
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Top-Down Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 121,188 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $810, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 219 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 615 games are announced against 258 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Yet Another Zombie Survivors 2026 · $6.4M SYNTHETIK: Legion Rising 2018 · $6.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
SYNTHETIK: Legion Rising older $19.99 10,111 94% 303k $6.1M (exactly $6,063,567) Flow Fire Games
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
Ship of Fools older $21.99 5,040 82% 151k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,888) Fika Productions
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Tiny Rogues · EA older $9.99 10,244 96% 307k $3.1M (exactly $3,070,127) RubyDev
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Gatekeeper $14.99 2,706 82% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,216,888) Gravity Lagoon
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.