Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Roguelike?

Roguelike + Thriller

Of 35 developers who shipped a Thriller Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×249 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 53 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $748 → $2.6k → $898 → $18k → $479 → $898 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $118,129)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 61
Announced 53
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action Roguelike, Deckbuilding
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,523 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadow Corridor 2 雨ノ四葩 older $18.99 853 87% 26k $486k (exactly $485,954) Space Onigiri Game LLC
Love Love School Days older $5.99 1,067 95% 32k $192k (exactly $191,740) OTL GAME
Daylight older $4.99 1,038 53% 31k $155k (exactly $155,389) Zombie Studios
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Relief $9.99 112 70% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Billiontail
ToruTaru · EA older $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) hiddenVisions
Subway Exorcist Girl $1.99 306 82% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,268) 纤指游戏
Sea Of Radiation 2 $5.99 95 72% 2.9k $17k (exactly $17,072) NightWalker
Grit Shot $6.99 29 75% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) nithic
Cursed Halls $6.99 26 92% 780 $5.5k (exactly $5,452) Souls Alive Development
Empty Village (Part 1) $4.99 21 90% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) 트리니티 소프트웨어, PASSWORLD, 이정겸(CEO OF PASSW… (트리니티 소프트웨어, PASSWORLD, 이정겸(CEO OF PASSWORLD))
Gamble: Hard Exit $5.99 15 100% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) RedZet

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.