Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Roguelike?

Roguelike + Tabletop

Of 175 developers who shipped a Tabletop Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 291 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 291 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 291 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 175
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $49k → $3.2k → $4.7k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $719 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 175
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,869)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 175
Released games 298
Announced 291
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 19,478 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $750, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 291 games are announced against 121 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

For The King 2018 · $19M UNO 2017 · $13M For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M Hand of Fate 2015 · $4.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
UNO older $9.99 42,019 70% 1.3M $13M (exactly $12,593,094) Ubisoft Entertainment
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Demonic Mahjong $16.99 3,875 95% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,975,087) Boxed Lighting Games
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Toy Smash Kaboom! $13.99 550 84% 17k $231k (exactly $230,835) Free Particle
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.