Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Roguelike?

Roguelike + Supernatural

Of 67 developers who shipped a Supernatural Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×341 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 106 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 106 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.4k → $3.8k → $1.7k → $1.8k → $4.9k → $359 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,389)
Top 5% $162k (exactly $162,132)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 125
Announced 106
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 3,872 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $900, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Rogue Lords older $24.99 1,442 71% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,067) Leikir Studio, Cyanide Studio
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Necroking older $4.99 857 81% 26k $128k (exactly $128,293) KORO.GAMES
Tavern Cards older $29.99 142 72% 4.3k $128k (exactly $127,757) Vadd Game
Rogue Loops $14.99 259 71% 7.8k $116k (exactly $116,472) Fubu Games
Holy Shoot $12.99 267 78% 8.0k $104k (exactly $104,050) Tale Era Interactive
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Malys $14.99 172 79% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Summerfall Studios
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games
I will purify you $13.99 141 78% 4.2k $59k (exactly $59,178) Cheese Burger Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.