Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Roguelike?

Roguelike + Steampunk

Of 40 developers who shipped a Steampunk Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.6k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×856 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 69 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $20k → $449 → $30k → $15k → $4.5k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $44,520)
Top 5% $538k (exactly $537,841)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 88
Announced 69
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,538 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $7.6k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
Abyssus $24.99 5,014 84% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,758,996) DoubleMoose Games
We Need To Go Deeper older $15.99 4,652 86% 140k $2.2M (exactly $2,231,564) Deli Interactive LLC
Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition older $24.99 2,661 84% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,952) Failbetter Games
Sir, You Are Being Hunted older $19.99 2,875 79% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) Big Robot Ltd
Little Noah: Scion of Paradise older $14.99 2,172 92% 65k $977k (exactly $976,748) Cygames, Inc., Grounding Inc.
Marfusha:Sentinel Girls older $7.99 3,116 93% 93k $747k (exactly $746,905) hinyari9
FrostBound $14.99 1,196 82% 36k $538k (exactly $537,841) Lyra Studio
Ironcast older $14.99 774 72% 23k $348k (exactly $348,068) Dreadbit
Swarm Grinder older $7.99 1,163 76% 35k $279k (exactly $278,771) Last Bite Games
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Dead Weight $12.99 575 82% 17k $224k (exactly $224,078) Klukva Games
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Slyders $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) Kato Games
Pirates Outlaws 2: Heritage · EA $14.99 105 60% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Fabled Game
Exark $14.99 99 73% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,520) Robot Cat Limited

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.