Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Roguelike?

Roguelike + Spaceships

Only 14 developers shipped a Spaceship Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ostranauts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Roguelike + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $33k (exactly $33,278)
Top 25% $178k (exactly $177,511)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 27
Announced 12
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 5,567 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Godrop older $8.99 269 93% 8.1k $73k (exactly $72,549) KATOR Game Studio, ZeroCastle game Stud… (KATOR Game Studio, ZeroCastle game Studio)
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Hyperspace Deck Command $19.99 91 95% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) Sleeper Games
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Stellar Raiders $9.99 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Five Head Games
Intergalactic Defenders · EA $3.99 9 100% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) Mert TASKIRAN
Unknown Hero $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Svero Forge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.