Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Roguelike?

Roguelike + Space

Of 287 developers who shipped a Space Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 454 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×301 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 454 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 454 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 287
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $1.3k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $2.1k → $1.7k → $599 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 287
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,871)
Top 5% $189k (exactly $188,874)
Developers, 2 yr 287
Released games 637
Announced 454
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 74,317 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 454 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Risk of Rain Returns older $14.99 24,795 89% 744k $11M (exactly $11,150,312) Hopoo Games
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Mycopunk · EA $14.99 4,081 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,835,226) Pigeons at Play
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Battlestar Galactica: Scattered Hopes $24.99 1,039 76% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Alt Shift
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.