Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Solitaire

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Solitaire Roguelike?

Roguelike + Solitaire

Of 67 developers who shipped a Solitaire Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 103 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 103 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is down 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 103 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $2.7k → $1.2k → $3.8k → $1.0k → $297 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,358)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $35,073)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 106
Announced 103
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Solitaire; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Game
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,907 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $35k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Zoominoes $14.99 549 91% 16k $247k (exactly $246,885) Starlight Games inc.
Dice Player One older $14.99 456 90% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) KDream
Solitairica older $9.99 436 78% 13k $131k (exactly $130,669) Righteous Hammer Games
Wordatro! $9.99 401 85% 12k $120k (exactly $120,180) Le Poulet
Roll older $4.99 407 91% 12k $61k (exactly $60,928) Joseph Distler
Photogenic Minds : Identity older $19.99 89 88% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) 727 Not Hound
Merge Maestro $3.99 384 93% 12k $46k (exactly $45,965) Stingless
Rainbow Legends $12.99 90 74% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,073) Unpixel Cloud Cedar Studio
Minesweeper: Collector older $7.99 132 88% 4.0k $32k (exactly $31,640) Anton Kryukov
纵横麻将 Matrix Mahjong $9.99 66 90% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Chao8games
Kungfu Card · EA $4.99 125 73% 3.8k $19k (exactly $18,712) ZeroCastle Game Studio, Miwu Studio
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Myth Monkey Card $5.99 62 100% 1.9k $11k (exactly $11,141) Myth Card Studio
KUNKUN League $2.99 123 98% 3.7k $11k (exactly $11,033) Seal
Oracle 5000 $10.99 30 63% 900 $9.9k (exactly $9,891) Tripple Y, 疯狂地蛋工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.