Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Roguelike?

Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 307 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 344 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×255 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 344 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 344 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 307
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.2k → $2.1k → $3.3k → $2.4k → $719 → $1.2k (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 307
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,736)
Top 5% $121k (exactly $120,969)
Developers, 2 yr 307
Released games 759
Announced 344
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 38,947 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 344 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Nova Drift 2024 · $7.0M Dead Estate 2021 · $2.6M Project Warlock 2018 · $1.7M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
Project Warlock older $12.00 4,691 87% 141k $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) Buckshot Software
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Star of Providence older $14.99 3,178 96% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,429,147) Team D-13
Apocalypse Party older $9.99 4,658 72% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,396,003) Breaker Games
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
DR LIVESEY ROM AND DEATH EDITION older $2.99 12,437 94% 373k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,599) Agafonoff
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Castle Of Alchemists $14.99 618 80% 19k $278k (exactly $277,915) Team Machiavelli
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.