Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Roguelike?

Roguelike + Science

Of 25 developers who shipped a Science Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 51 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $3.3k → $107k → $2.3k → $360 → $270 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $270 (exactly $270)
Top 25% $987 (exactly $987)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 56
Announced 51
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 728 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $980, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Terraformers 2023 · $1.8M Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition 2020 · $939k Who Wants To Be A Millionaire 2020 · $364k Scavenger SV-4 2018 · $294k Genome Guardian 2024 · $256k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,566 73% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Radiation Blue
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire older $29.99 405 52% 12k $364k (exactly $364,378) Appeal Studios, Balio Studio
Scavenger SV-4 older $14.99 653 91% 20k $294k (exactly $293,654) Deric Ruhl
Genome Guardian older $11.99 711 92% 21k $256k (exactly $255,747) Alpherior
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
Gem Defender: Soyjak Survivors older $3.99 1,045 94% 31k $125k (exactly $125,086) Coby Dox, Chudd Howard
Crawling Lab older $4.99 713 83% 21k $107k (exactly $106,736) eTIRUe
Cell Command $17.99 159 97% 4.8k $86k (exactly $85,812) Alpherior
Evolve Lab · EA $14.99 69 94% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) SiRen Games
C.A.R.S. - Creating A Ridiculous Shitshow $7.99 40 97% 1.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,588) 3Dads Studios
Interstellar Espionage Inc. $11.99 16 87% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Fancy Raven Games
Chemical Combat $8.99 7 100% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) SigmoidDev
DOOMSDAY $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) JARWorks
CRT: Corner Right There! $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Benevolent Banana Studio
Swarm Sweeper $2.99 7 100% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Hi-Develop
Evoscape $11.99 1 100% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Magic Mill

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.