Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Roguelike?

Roguelike + Romance

Of 35 developers who shipped a Romance Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×380 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 35 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 35 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $78k → $21k → $6.9k → $29k → $2.2k → $24k (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,755)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,890)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $180,429)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 69
Announced 35
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Roguelite, RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,445 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 5 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wedding Witch older $4.99 4,451 89% 134k $666k (exactly $666,315) Chowbie
Buoyancy · EA older $12.99 808 54% 24k $315k (exactly $314,878) Devs on a Boat
Heart&Slash older $14.99 519 81% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Gray Haven : Witch's Garden $21.99 319 76% 9.6k $210k (exactly $210,444) NINEHECTARE
Love Love School Days older $5.99 1,067 95% 32k $192k (exactly $191,740) OTL GAME
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Dungeon Dreams 2 older $19.99 209 90% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) DDreams Games
MagicShop2 $15.99 242 88% 7.3k $116k (exactly $116,087) FireArmGames
Trillion: God of Destruction older $9.99 361 71% 11k $108k (exactly $108,192) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, PREAPP PAR… (IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, PREAPP PARTNERS)
Hypnosis Card 2 Happy Life $12.99 270 91% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) Naku Kinoko
Find the Demon 恶魔鉴定守则 $7.99 346 89% 10k $83k (exactly $82,936) SHAKINO_UNION
Isekai Big Dick $10.99 122 87% 3.7k $40k (exactly $40,223) Hippo Games
Cupiclaw $9.99 115 87% 3.5k $34k (exactly $34,466) Typin
极乐不羡仙 $5.99 164 65% 4.9k $29k (exactly $29,471) 仙常居ソフト
Femboy Survival · EA $6.99 133 92% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,890) 2DNiem
Hypnosis Card 2 $12.99 65 78% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) Naku Kinoko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.