Do I ship it?

GamesTransportationTransportation + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Transportation game?

Transportation + Life Sim

Of 24 developers who shipped a Life Sim Transportation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×43 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.5M, ×8871 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 48 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $1.9k → $62k → $135k → $369k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Median $27k (exactly $26,846)
Top 25% $369k (exactly $368,916)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 59
Announced 48
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation, Life Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Driving
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 34,433 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.8k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.8k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Transportation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  2. + PvPFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + 3D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  4. + RacingFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  5. + Action-AdventureFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  6. + LogicFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair37 devs · median $839 · 32 announced
  8. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $747 · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $43k · 17 announced
  12. + Immersive SimPoor odds61 devs · median $19k · 89 announced

All 53 pairs on the Transportation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
Tower! Simulator 3 older $59.99 1,047 67% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,286) FeelThere
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
My Recycling Center older $14.99 626 69% 19k $282k (exactly $281,512) Darius Bode
Cabin Crew Life Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) SOGA Std
TROLEU $9.99 607 92% 18k $182k (exactly $181,918) andrground
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv
Lakehopper · EA $9.99 479 88% 14k $144k (exactly $143,556) Photon Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.