Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Roguelike?

Roguelike + Puzzle

Of 300 developers who shipped a Puzzle Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 428 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×422 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 428 games are announced against 196 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 428 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 300
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $1.2k → $2.5k → $2.6k → $2.7k → $718 → $897 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 300
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,930)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,566)
Developers, 2 yr 300
Released games 624
Announced 428
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 55,704 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 115 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 428 games are announced against 196 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Inscryption 2021 · $81M Blue Prince 2025 · $16M Buckshot Roulette 2024 · $9.9M Into the Breach 2018 · $8.5M The Escapists 2015 · $7.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
Into the Breach older $14.99 19,000 94% 570k $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) Subset Games
The Escapists older $17.99 14,294 90% 429k $7.7M (exactly $7,714,472) Mouldy Toof Studios
Mini Motorways older $9.99 23,561 96% 707k $7.1M (exactly $7,061,232) Dinosaur Polo Club
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.