Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Roguelike?

Roguelike + Psychological

Of 51 developers who shipped a Psychological Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×380 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 116 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $21k → $17k → $1.2k → $479 → $718 → $630 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,081)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $180,429)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 75
Announced 116
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 26,657 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.0k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
The Backrooms: Survival older $9.99 881 82% 26k $264k (exactly $264,036) RE:CODE
Everlasting Flowers - Where there is a will, there is a way older $29.99 283 86% 8.5k $255k (exactly $254,615) sprite, flowers.studio
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Photogenic Minds : Identity older $19.99 89 88% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) 727 Not Hound
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
XXX_CYBERRAT_XXX older $5.99 137 94% 4.1k $25k (exactly $24,619) Nocturne Studio
Dreamcards $9.99 82 98% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Soneka Games
Blackjack Descent $7.99 88 79% 2.6k $21k (exactly $21,094) CGI LAB GAMES
ARSONATE $2.99 158 87% 4.7k $14k (exactly $14,173) Nash
Red or Blue $3.99 109 96% 3.3k $13k (exactly $13,047) Canary
Time for Bed $4.99 83 96% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) NERDY PENGUIN
Angel's Dreams $9.99 38 92% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Crooked Road

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.