Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Tactical game?

Tactical + Post-apocalyptic

Of 84 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 243 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1989 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 243 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 243 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $564 → $6.1k → $5.6k → $3.1k → $180 → $13k (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,059)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 293
Announced 243
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 81,924 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 243 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Plague Inc: Evolved older $14.99 59,205 94% 1.8M $27M (exactly $26,624,488) Ndemic Creations
Plants vs. Zombies GOTY Edition older $4.99 143,506 97% 4.3M $21M (exactly $21,482,848) PopCap Games, Inc.
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Left 4 Dead older $9.99 58,218 96% 1.7M $17M (exactly $17,447,935) Valve
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
FRONT MISSION 3: Remake $34.99 453 74% 14k $476k (exactly $475,514) MegaPixel Studio S.A.
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.