Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Roguelike?

Roguelike + Post-apocalyptic

Of 185 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 417 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×394 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 417 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 417 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 185
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $9.0k → $2.7k → $6.7k → $1.9k → $1.9k → $2.4k (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 185
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,195)
Top 5% $248k (exactly $247,552)
Developers, 2 yr 185
Released games 438
Announced 417
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 31,836 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 417 games are announced against 109 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Roboquest 2023 · $14M Deadzone: Rogue 2025 · $11M Dome Keeper 2022 · $10M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M The Wandering Village 2025 · $7.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
GTTOD · EA older $29.99 3,010 87% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,097) Andrew Smith, STUDIO Bare Bones
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
OVIS LOOP · EA $16.99 1,083 88% 32k $552k (exactly $552,005) LIFUEL
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
RAM: Random Access Mayhem $14.99 611 97% 18k $275k (exactly $274,767) Xylem Studios
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.