Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Tactical game?

Tactical + Physics

Of 145 developers who shipped a Physics Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 295 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 295 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 295 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $386 → $4.0k → $750 → $898 → $180 → $359 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,776)
Top 5% $427k (exactly $426,529)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 427
Announced 295
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 44,880 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 295 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Ravenfield · EA older $17.99 76,492 96% 2.3M $41M (exactly $41,282,732) SteelRaven7
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades $19.99 22,774 97% 683k $14M (exactly $13,657,568) RUST LTD.
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Forts older $14.99 21,216 92% 636k $9.5M (exactly $9,540,835) EarthWork Games
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Creeper World 4 older $24.99 4,553 94% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) Knuckle Cracker
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
GERONIMO · EA $19.99 1,267 81% 38k $760k (exactly $759,820) Dark Matter Studios
Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator $29.99 800 80% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) SIMTECH SOLUTIONS
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Creeper World IXE $19.99 855 69% 26k $513k (exactly $512,743) Knuckle Cracker
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
Annihilate The Spance · EA $29.99 347 90% 10k $312k (exactly $312,196) Skyglow Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.