Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Tactical game?

Tactical + Perma Death

Of 99 developers who shipped a Perma Death Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 214 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1289 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 214 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 214 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.1k → $1.1k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $7.8k → $3.6k → $2.2k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,984)
Top 5% $810k (exactly $809,676)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 282
Announced 214
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 14,351 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 214 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
FTL: Faster Than Light older $9.99 62,763 94% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,810,071) Subset Games
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.