Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Tactical game?

Tactical + Ninja

Of 20 developers who shipped a Ninja Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $3.4k → $180 → $240 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,181)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 53
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Boomer Shooter, Grid-Based Movement
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 157 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice older $19.99 3,965 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,377,810) Mimimi Games
Sengoku Jidai: Shadow of the Shogun older $29.99 172 73% 5.2k $155k (exactly $154,748) Byzantine Games
Ninja Village older $8.99 546 93% 16k $147k (exactly $147,256) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
NOBUNAGA'S AMBITION: Soutenroku with Power Up Kit older $29.99 85 62% 2.6k $76k (exactly $76,474) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Crazy Kung Fu older $14.99 71 87% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Field Of Vision
Red Ronin older $7.99 119 87% 3.6k $29k (exactly $28,524) Wired Dreams Studio
Arashi Gaiden $9.99 64 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Statera Studio, Wired Dreams Studio
Reverse Defenders older $19.99 28 60% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) Libragames
Devils' Night Party older $5.99 92 53% 2.8k $17k (exactly $16,532) NAGATOUI
Eye of the Commando · EA $14.99 34 100% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Adventurepro Games LLC
False Alarm $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Scattered Discs
Shogi $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Popoko VM Games
Lightning Katana $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Juicy Pulp Games
Ninjam! $8.99 8 87% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) G-Blossom
Gangs Of Asia · EA $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Moonpunch
Disintegral $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Will Sykes Games
Shinobi $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Michael D'Souza
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.