Do I ship it?

GamesTransportationTransportation + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Transportation game?

Transportation + Nature

Only 12 developers shipped a Nature Transportation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, RoadCraft, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×25841 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 39 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $7.2k → $899 (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $8.6k (exactly $8,630)
Top 25% $113k (exactly $113,205)
Top 5% $16M (exactly $16,228,342)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 33
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 16,033 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $8.6k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Transportation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  2. + PvPFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + 3D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  4. + RacingFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  5. + Action-AdventureFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  6. + LogicFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair37 devs · median $839 · 32 announced
  8. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $747 · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $43k · 17 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds24 devs · median $27k · 48 announced

All 53 pairs on the Transportation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Station to Station older $17.99 1,239 89% 37k $669k (exactly $668,688) Galaxy Grove
Factory Town 2: Paradise · EA $24.99 151 89% 4.5k $113k (exactly $113,205) Erik Asmussen
Please Fix The Road older $9.99 261 77% 7.8k $78k (exactly $78,222) ARIELEK
Neon Curves Racing $12.99 92 94% 2.8k $36k (exactly $35,852) Ghost Machine
Short Trip $1.99 280 98% 8.4k $17k (exactly $16,716) Alexander Perrin
Costa Verde Transport Department older $9.99 37 72% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Nikita Lisitsa
Build For Sale Simulator · EA $8.99 32 46% 960 $8.6k (exactly $8,630) Paragon Game Studio
Storm Horse Simulator $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) INDIE FORGE STUDIOS S.R.L.
Offroad Frontiers $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Nentori Software LLC
Esqapes: Voyages $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) AVCV
L.A.W Transporter · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Butter Fly Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.