Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Roguelike?

Roguelike + Mythology

Of 120 developers who shipped a Mythological Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 212 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1957 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 212 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 212 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $11k → $11k → $7.8k → $4.2k → $896 → $2.7k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,116)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 240
Announced 212
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, RPG, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 193,082 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 212 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
《蜀山:初章》买断版 older $24.99 5,772 74% 173k $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) 重楼工作室
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Jotunnslayer: Hordes of Hel $14.99 7,318 82% 220k $3.3M (exactly $3,290,905) Games Farm, ARTillery
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Neon Abyss 2 · EA $19.99 1,968 68% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,210) Veewo Games
Conquest Dark · EA $9.99 2,530 89% 76k $758k (exactly $758,241) Eldritch Sword Games
Achilles: Survivor $8.99 1,454 81% 44k $392k (exactly $392,144) Dark Point Games
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.