Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Roguelike?

Roguelike + Modern

Of 46 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $60k, ×126 the market median. Revenue is up 185% on the market; 61 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 185% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $358 → $4.7k → $570 → $898 → $180 (still earning) → $41k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $60,004)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 81
Announced 61
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 185% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 15,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $630, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $60k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
Cataclysm: Dark Days Ahead older $19.99 537 86% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) CleverRaven
Everlasting Flowers - Where there is a will, there is a way older $29.99 283 86% 8.5k $255k (exactly $254,615) sprite, flowers.studio
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Tokyo Valkyries $22.99 87 75% 2.6k $60k (exactly $60,004) qureate
Calculate It · EA older $6.99 264 87% 7.9k $55k (exactly $55,361) SVGames
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Natsuno-Kanata: Beyond Summer older $10.99 127 91% 3.8k $42k (exactly $41,872) Kazuhide Oka
Stackflow $6.99 195 88% 5.9k $41k (exactly $40,892) Caue Ferrareto
AbsentedAge: Squarebound older $12.99 67 91% 2.0k $26k (exactly $26,110) terunon's Lab
Typing Break $8.99 96 80% 2.9k $26k (exactly $25,891) Tholus
Pawffice $11.99 35 88% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,590) 飞天海牛工作室
Pegs X Stickers $5.99 65 87% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,680) Mister Morris Games, Tyler Ray Games
BeatRider $11.99 32 53% 960 $12k (exactly $11,510) 无限电玩, Combo X Camp
Demon Corporation: Onboarding $6.99 42 95% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) A Shrine of Ludens

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.