Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Roguelike?

Roguelike + Military

Of 63 developers who shipped a Military Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 96 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 96 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $1.1k → $899 → $2.8k → $3.0k → $5.4k → $629 (still earning) → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,793)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 134
Announced 96
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Tactical
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 14,065 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Project Wingman 2020 · $14M Bomber Crew 2017 · $5.0M Tower Dominion 2025 · $2.7M Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M TurretGirls 2025 · $564k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Armoured Commander II older $9.99 587 98% 18k $176k (exactly $175,924) Gregory Adam Scott
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Fracture Point $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Kyrylo Burlaka
Three Kingdoms : Alias · EA $7.99 359 79% 11k $86k (exactly $86,052) Plotrick
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.