Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Roguelike?

Roguelike + Medieval

Of 402 developers who shipped a Medieval Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 711 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $510; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×951 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 711 games are announced against 252 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 711 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 402
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $1.0k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $6.0k → $1.9k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 402
Bottom 30% $505 (exactly $505)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,029)
Top 5% $452k (exactly $451,948)
Developers, 2 yr 402
Released games 843
Announced 711
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 35,414 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $510, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $510. 7 in 10 of the 170 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 711 games are announced against 252 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Heroes of Hammerwatch II $19.99 5,806 82% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,481,858) Crackshell
Rogue Tower older $14.99 5,772 82% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,595,668) Die of Death Games
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
Crimson Moon $19.99 2,760 59% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,655,172) ProbablyMonsters
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.