Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Romance

Of 209 developers who shipped a Romance Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 251 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×8.8 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 251 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 251 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 209
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.4k → $1.9k → $1.4k → $896 → $1.3k → $300 (still earning) → $298 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 209
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,573)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $175,112)
Developers, 2 yr 209
Released games 1,195
Announced 251
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Adventure
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 20,656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $8.5k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 220 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 251 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  11. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced
  12. + CookingFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster older $29.99 19,857 87% 596k $18M (exactly $17,865,343) Square Enix
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension older $12.99 24,144 97% 724k $9.4M (exactly $9,408,917) Draw Me A Pixel
HuniePop older $9.99 23,989 96% 720k $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) HuniePot
HuniePop 2: Double Date older $19.99 8,149 91% 244k $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) HuniePot
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Deponia: The Complete Journey older $29.99 3,375 85% 101k $3.0M (exactly $3,036,488) Daedalic Entertainment
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
LoveChoice older $1.99 32,353 92% 971k $1.9M (exactly $1,931,474) Akaba Studio
The Bridge Curse Road to Salvation older $19.99 2,989 89% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
SHUTEN ORDER $49.99 712 80% 21k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) Neilo Inc.
Crushed In Time $24.99 1,247 90% 37k $935k (exactly $934,876) Draw Me A Pixel
AI2U: With You 'Til The End $14.99 2,073 87% 62k $932k (exactly $932,228) AlterStaff Inc.
Incantation $16.99 1,106 73% 33k $564k (exactly $563,728) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Foolish Mortals $19.99 663 94% 20k $398k (exactly $397,601) Inklingwood Studios
MILFs of Sunville - Season 2 $9.99 1,281 88% 38k $384k (exactly $383,916) L7team
Refate: Echoes of Desire $14.99 558 87% 17k $251k (exactly $250,933) Terraflame Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.