Should I ship a Loot Wargame?
Loot + Wargame
Only 12 developers shipped a Loot Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $860k, ×1376 the market median. Revenue is up 1995% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.6k (exactly $1,617) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,425) |
| Top 5% | $864k (exactly $863,874) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 15 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1995% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Loot, Wargame
- Price point
- $6.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,626 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds
- + Local Co-OpStrong odds
- + SteampunkStrong odds
- + CapitalismFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + JRPGFair
- + EconomyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + CatsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + CollectathonFair
Comparable games
RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M 
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes 2026 · $864k 
👑 Idle Calibur 👑（选王之剑） 2022 · $298k 
Warlords Battleground: Extraction 2026 · $189k 
Linguist FPS - The Language Learning FPS 2022 · $86k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | RUNNING WITH RIFLES | older | $14.99 | 14,676 87% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Osumia Games |
| | Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes | $14.99 | 1,921 90% | 58k | $864k (exactly $863,874) | Cats Who Play | |
| | 👑 Idle Calibur 👑（选王之剑） | older | $7.99 | 1,242 85% | 37k | $298k (exactly $297,707) | 绝汪 |
| | Warlords Battleground: Extraction | $11.99 | 525 84% | 16k | $189k (exactly $188,842) | 绝汪 | |
| | Linguist FPS - The Language Learning FPS | older | $14.99 | 192 71% | 5.8k | $86k (exactly $86,342) | Rocket Boy Games |
 | Rescue Operation | older | $3.99 | 253 87% | 7.6k | $30k (exactly $30,284) | Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich |
 | Hydra Heli | $4.99 | 83 91% | 2.5k | $12k (exactly $12,425) | Ideas Per Second | |
 | Hydra Heli 2 | $6.99 | 30 80% | 900 | $6.3k (exactly $6,291) | Ideas Per Second | |
 | Necrotyper | $14.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | Vildiur | |
 | Cemetery Warrior V | older | $3.99 | 32 71% | 960 | $3.8k (exactly $3,830) | Falco Software |
 | Loot of Idle | $1.99 | 33 48% | 990 | $2.0k (exactly $1,970) | DarkRook Interactive | |
 | 學生騎士團 | $5.99 | 9 77% | 270 | $1.6k (exactly $1,617) | T-Time Technology CO., LTD. | |
 | This sect accepts female disciples only | $8.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $539 (exactly $539) | sln | |
 | Super Kingcrab Simulator | $1.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $537 (exactly $537) | !CyberApex (SkagoGames) | |
 | Azure Defenders | $7.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $479 (exactly $479) | StarMatrix Labs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.