Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Roguelite?

Roguelite + LGBTQ+

Of 30 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×70 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 48 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 70.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $2.5k → $48k → $8.1k → $55k → $3.0k (still earning) → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Median $33k (exactly $33,278)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $110,956)
Top 5% $743k (exactly $743,405)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 66
Announced 48
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action Roguelike, Perma Death
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 120,629 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades older $24.99 285,748 97% 8.6M $214M (exactly $214,225,276) Supergiant Games
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
Cursed Words: The Word Game That Isn't $14.99 698 95% 21k $314k (exactly $313,891) Buried Things
Last Devil older $10.99 775 76% 23k $256k (exactly $255,518) Sand Traveler, ado
Ambition: A Minuet in Power older $20.99 334 85% 10k $210k (exactly $210,320) Joy Manufacturing Co.
Battle Suit Aces $19.99 347 90% 10k $208k (exactly $208,096) Trinket Studios
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Wander Stars $24.99 148 92% 4.4k $111k (exactly $110,956) Paper Castle Games
Mushroom Musume $14.99 221 95% 6.6k $99k (exactly $99,384) Mortally Moonstruck Games
Humiliation Dungeon Survivors $9.99 325 87% 9.8k $97k (exactly $97,402) Naku Kinoko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.