Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Roguelike?

Roguelike + Incremental

Of 194 developers who shipped an Incremental Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 309 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×413 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 309 games are announced against 154 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 309 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 194
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $11k → $6.0k → $33k → $3.0k → $838 → $599 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 194
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 5% $196k (exactly $196,107)
Developers, 2 yr 194
Released games 285
Announced 309
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 33,623 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $840, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 309 games are announced against 154 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Book of Demons 2018 · $6.0M Scritchy Scratchy 2026 · $3.2M (the) Gnorp Apologue 2023 · $2.0M How Many Dudes? 2026 · $1.3M Sir, We Have an Orc Problem 2026 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
(the) Gnorp Apologue older $6.99 9,613 94% 288k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,846) Myco
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Swag and Sorcery older $12.99 2,318 54% 70k $903k (exactly $903,325) Lazy Bear Games, Uroboros Games
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Timber Rush $4.99 1,490 84% 45k $223k (exactly $223,053) Allerton Apps
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.