Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Tactical game?

Tactical + Hex Grid

Of 84 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 153 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×592 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 153 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 153 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $1.8k → $3.3k → $1.8k → $4.2k → $7.9k → $4.0k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,814)
Top 5% $372k (exactly $371,814)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 281
Announced 153
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Hex Grid; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 53% positive over 51,525 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 153 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.