Do I ship it?

Games › Hero Shooter › Hero Shooter + Third-Person Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Third-Person Shooter Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Third-Person Shooter

Of 57 developers who shipped a Third-Person Shooter Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 127 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 127 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Third-Person Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $2.0k → $899 → $3.6k → $179 → $1.3k → $599 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Third-Person Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $595k (exactly $595,403)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 235
Announced 127
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, Third-Person Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Co-op
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 11,856 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 7 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Plants vs. Zombies™ Garden Warfare 2: Deluxe Edition 2022 · $41M Gears 5 2019 · $19M Plants vs. Zombies: Battle for Neighborville™ 2020 · $14M Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap 2025 · $3.6M Gigantic: Rampage Edition 2024 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Plants vs. Zombies™ Garden Warfare 2: Deluxe Edition older $29.99 45,480 90% 1.4M $41M (exactly $40,918,356) PopCap
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
Plants vs. Zombies: Battle for Neighborville™ older $29.99 15,372 71% 461k $14M (exactly $13,830,188) PopCap
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Gigantic: Rampage Edition older $19.99 3,795 65% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,862) Abstraction Games
Wild Assault $14.99 3,861 68% 116k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) Combat Cat Studio
Them and Us older $39.99 1,216 76% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,835) TendoGames Co., Ltd.
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
Warden's Will $14.99 304 70% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) ELYZIO
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
Last Flag $4.99 576 73% 17k $86k (exactly $86,227) Night Street Games
Lust 'n Dead 🔞 $9.99 212 66% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Octo Games
Deadrock Redemption 2 $14.99 123 86% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
KUNKUN Defender 2 $4.99 294 94% 8.8k $44k (exactly $44,012) Seal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.