Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Simulation

Of 31 developers who shipped a Simulation Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.4 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×116 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 28 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 28 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $416 → $4.2k → $1.4k → $119 → $600 → $4.2k → $597 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,800)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 98
Announced 28
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, Simulation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $480, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  3. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  5. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  6. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  8. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  9. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  11. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced
  12. + AliensPoor odds18 devs · median $1.0k · 25 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
BE-A Walker older $9.99 651 72% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Tequilabyte Studio
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Heroic Armored Company · EA older $16.99 185 56% 5.6k $94k (exactly $94,294) Magicvalley Studio(魔法谷工作室)
HITLER: BDSM BUNKER older $9.99 164 81% 4.9k $49k (exactly $49,151) Adolf Games
KILLDOZER · EA $19.99 57 78% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Rename For Value
J15 Jet Fighter VR (歼15舰载机) · EA older $9.99 44 47% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Magicvalley Studio
Desert Special Forces older $19.99 20 65% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Gamesforgames
The Mythical City older $9.99 38 60% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Gamesforgames
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
Kebabstar 🌯⭐ · EA $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Zeybek
Luna Hollow - Dream Eater Defense $5.99 32 53% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) CHARON, STUDIO CHARON, 月桂樹冠
Prison Escape Simulator $9.99 18 77% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) PEGAX Studios
Just Skill Shooter 4 $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Just Skill Shooter: Catacombs $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.