Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + PvP

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + PvP

Of 27 developers who shipped a paid PvP Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 127 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.7 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×1289 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 127 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 127 announced, ×7.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + PvP
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.8k → $9.2k → $0 → $600 → $446 (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + PvP: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,274)
Top 25% $132k (exactly $131,568)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 169
Announced 127
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 50%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, PvP; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, Shooter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 54,572 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  11. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced
  12. + AliensPoor odds18 devs · median $1.0k · 25 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Plants vs. Zombies™ Garden Warfare 2: Deluxe Edition older $29.99 45,480 90% 1.4M $41M (exactly $40,918,356) PopCap
Plants vs. Zombies: Battle for Neighborville™ older $29.99 15,372 71% 461k $14M (exactly $13,830,188) PopCap
Friends vs Friends older $9.99 10,860 83% 326k $3.3M (exactly $3,254,742) Brainwash Gang
Primal Carnage: Extinction older $12.99 8,283 84% 248k $3.2M (exactly $3,227,885) Circle Five Studios, Pub Games
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
Raw Data older $39.99 2,036 81% 61k $2.4M (exactly $2,442,589) Survios
Gigantic: Rampage Edition older $19.99 3,795 65% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,862) Abstraction Games
Wild Assault $14.99 3,861 68% 116k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,292) Combat Cat Studio
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Neighbors: Suburban Warfare · EA $9.99 1,906 66% 57k $571k (exactly $571,228) Invisible Walls
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
Birds of War $9.99 439 87% 13k $132k (exactly $131,568) HexNest Games
Last Flag $4.99 576 73% 17k $86k (exactly $86,227) Night Street Games
STARVAULT VR $24.99 66 89% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) Theia Games
Touhou Brawl $11.99 39 51% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) FIVE DUCK GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.