Do I ship it?

Games › Hero Shooter › Hero Shooter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Sci-fi

Of 58 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.2 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 86 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 86 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $239 → $899 → $150 → $179 → $899 → $239 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,768)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 253
Announced 86
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 47,640 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $270, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015 · $284M Titanfall® 2 2020 · $229M Marathon 2026 · $54M Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare 2016 · $31M Gears 5 2019 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare older $59.99 17,489 65% 525k $31M (exactly $31,474,953) Infinity Ward
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Raw Data older $39.99 2,036 81% 61k $2.4M (exactly $2,442,589) Survios
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Serious Sam: Shatterverse $19.99 648 50% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Warden's Will $14.99 304 70% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) ELYZIO
Space Adventure Cobra - The Awakening $24.99 119 77% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Magic Pockets
STARVAULT VR $24.99 66 89% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) Theia Games
Operation Night Strikers $24.99 48 77% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) M2 Co., Ltd.
METAL SUITS: Counter-attack $9.99 71 77% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Gonggamore Contents
HoverGrease 2 $19.99 24 83% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Altergaze

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.