Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Roguelite

Of 29 developers who shipped a Roguelite Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×0.6 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 31 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $2.8k → $2.6k → $239 → $29k → $1.5k → $449 (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $807 (exactly $807)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,028)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $388,606)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 66
Announced 31
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, Roguelite; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, PvE
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 6,508 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $810, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Wild Bastards older $34.99 616 74% 18k $647k (exactly $646,615) Blue Manchu
Serious Sam: Shatterverse $19.99 648 50% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Warden's Will $14.99 304 70% 9.1k $137k (exactly $136,709) ELYZIO
Mega City Force older $14.99 289 76% 8.7k $130k (exactly $129,963) Undreamed Games
Iron Core: Mech Survivor $6.99 352 73% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Soda Game Studio
Cowboy 3030 $14.99 96 87% 2.9k $43k (exactly $43,171) Soy Boy Games
GRUEL $9.99 96 97% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Mick Sengers, Cheesebaron
Touhou Brawl $11.99 39 51% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) FIVE DUCK GAMES
Luna Hollow - Dream Eater Defense $5.99 32 53% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) CHARON, STUDIO CHARON, 月桂樹冠
Idle Zombie Wave: Premium $7.99 21 38% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Ryki Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.