Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Puzzle

Only 16 developers shipped a Puzzle Hero Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Kvark, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $955 → $1.1k → $150 → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,462)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 42
Announced 17
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, Puzzle; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
Fossilfuel older $14.99 153 70% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) DangerousBob Studio LLC
Cosmos Bit older $4.99 97 86% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,521) SEEP
Random Heroes: Gold Edition older $4.99 86 69% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,874) Woblyware, Somepx
The Mythical City older $9.99 38 60% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) Gamesforgames
Westwood Shadows $11.99 31 67% 930 $11k (exactly $11,151) RedSoup Studio
Take No Prisoners older $9.99 34 79% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Raven Software
IHAS $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) The Difference Studios
Ultrazone older $9.99 13 76% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Arachnoid $4.99 12 33% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Horrid Vision LLC
Monstergasm $4.99 7 57% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Red Sasori
Remnants Of Eden $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Red Sunset Productions
Gun Predict $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Gabry Corti
Death Row Escape $2.00 6 100% 180 $360 (exactly $360) SE Games Studio
Math4TopDogs $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Mathsandcau
Data Drift: Cyberpunk Shooter Top Down indie action $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Napoterulle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.