Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Tactical game?

Tactical + Grid-Based Movement

Of 159 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 317 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×195 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 317 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 317 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 159
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.3k → $3.2k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $987 → $300 (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 159
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,793)
Top 5% $122k (exactly $122,339)
Developers, 2 yr 159
Released games 424
Announced 317
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Grid-Based Movement; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 45,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 317 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Persona 5 Tactica older $59.99 1,526 74% 46k $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) ATLUS
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Card-en-Ciel $24.99 856 90% 26k $642k (exactly $641,743) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
Dead Season $19.99 182 69% 5.5k $109k (exactly $109,145) Snail Bite
Master of Piece · EA $14.99 197 86% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) I M GAME, I M fine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.