Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Roguelike?

Roguelike + Gothic

Of 61 developers who shipped a Gothic Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 114 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×3745 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 114 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 114 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3M → $180 → $12k → $15k → $838 → $6.6k → $1.3k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 118
Announced 114
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 55,489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 114 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M Have a Nice Death 2023 · $7.3M Iratus: Lord of the Dead 2020 · $6.5M Halls of Torment 2024 · $6.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Have a Nice Death older $24.99 9,729 85% 292k $7.3M (exactly $7,293,831) Magic Design Studios
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Crimson Moon $19.99 2,760 59% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,655,172) ProbablyMonsters
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Night Swarm $9.99 1,142 78% 34k $342k (exactly $342,257) Fubu Games
Tenebris: Terra Incognita $19.99 313 79% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Phantasmica Studios
Few Nights More $14.99 382 81% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Aeterna Ludi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.