Games › Loot › Loot + Gambling
Should I ship a Loot Gambling game?
Loot + Gambling
Of 20 developers who shipped a Loot Gambling game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 41 games are announced.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $449 (exactly $449) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,228) |
| Top 5% | $890k (exactly $889,766) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 43 |
| Announced | 41 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 435% on the market, supply 465% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Loot, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Arcade, Deckbuilding
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 6,142 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds
- + Local Co-OpStrong odds
- + SteampunkStrong odds
- + CapitalismFair
- + Turn-Based StrategyFair
- + JRPGFair
- + EconomyFair
- + IdlerFair
- + CatsFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + CollectathonFair
Comparable games
Fortune Mill 2026 · $890k 
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker 2025 · $320k 
硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) 2025 · $144k 
I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling 2017 · $46k 
Cupiclaw 2026 · $34k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Fortune Mill | $7.99 | 3,712 81% | 111k | $890k (exactly $889,766) | Lavaflame2 | |
| | This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker | $5.99 | 1,781 86% | 53k | $320k (exactly $320,046) | Mash | |
| | 硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) | $13.99 | 343 77% | 10k | $144k (exactly $143,957) | Moshow Games | |
| | I Can't Believe It's Not Gambling | older | $0.99 | 1,542 91% | 46k | $46k (exactly $45,797) | Mutant Entertainment Studios |
| | Cupiclaw | $9.99 | 115 87% | 3.5k | $34k (exactly $34,466) | Typin | |
 | CUBE ROYALE | · EA older | $9.99 | 47 93% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | Creature Factory |
 | Gamble Tower | older | $14.99 | 26 96% | 780 | $12k (exactly $11,692) | Indiebuild |
 | Card Corner | $4.99 | 75 76% | 2.3k | $11k (exactly $11,228) | Conradical Games | |
 | Knock on Fate：The Guardian Pusher | $5.99 | 58 87% | 1.7k | $10k (exactly $10,423) | 刚正面的红领巾 | |
 | Isekai Mage Girl Gacha Pull Simulator: Elemental Card Collection | $6.99 | 27 74% | 810 | $5.7k (exactly $5,662) | Violet Soft | |
 | Side Hustle | $3.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $1.2k (exactly $1,197) | theJameskrik | |
 | The Lion Gambles Everything He Owns | $0.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $535 (exactly $535) | Simba | |
 | A Game About Flipping Cards | $4.99 | 3 33% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Zandbox Studio Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.