Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Roguelike?

Roguelike + Futuristic

Of 223 developers who shipped a Futuristic Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 413 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, ×1.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×233 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 413 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 413 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 223
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $2.1k → $1.5k → $1.6k → $1.9k → $899 → $449 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 223
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,663)
Developers, 2 yr 223
Released games 513
Announced 413
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 14,190 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $660, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 102 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 413 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Clone Drone in the Danger Zone 2021 · $22M Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown 2026 · $4.4M VOID/BREAKER 2025 · EA · $2.3M Star Renegades 2020 · $2.0M Terraformers 2023 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Oblivion Override older $17.99 1,692 90% 51k $913k (exactly $913,172) Humble Mill
METALLIC CHILD older $24.99 1,131 84% 34k $848k (exactly $847,911) Action Square(STUDIO HG)
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
OVIS LOOP · EA $16.99 1,083 88% 32k $552k (exactly $552,005) LIFUEL
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.