Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FPS Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + FPS

Of 70 developers who shipped an FPS Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 141 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 141 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 141 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $449 → $420 → $3.9k → $899 → $5.4k → $180 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,768)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 331
Announced 141
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, FPS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 52,910 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 141 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare older $59.99 17,489 65% 525k $31M (exactly $31,474,953) Infinity Ward
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Friends vs Friends older $9.99 10,860 83% 326k $3.3M (exactly $3,254,742) Brainwash Gang
Primal Carnage: Extinction older $12.99 8,283 84% 248k $3.2M (exactly $3,227,885) Circle Five Studios, Pub Games
Project Warlock II $16.99 1,233 80% 37k $628k (exactly $628,460) Buckshot Software
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Neighbors: Suburban Warfare · EA $9.99 1,906 66% 57k $571k (exactly $571,228) Invisible Walls
420BLAZEIT 2: GAME OF THE YEAR -=Dank Dreams and Goated Memes=- [#wow/11 Like and Subscribe] Poggerz Edition $10.99 1,546 98% 46k $510k (exactly $509,716) Normal Wholesome Games
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
The Living Remain $19.99 289 79% 8.7k $173k (exactly $173,313) Five Finger Studios
Devilated $19.99 163 85% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Trunka
Beyond Sunset $9.99 297 77% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) Metacorp / Vaporware

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.