Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Roguelike?

Roguelike + Female Protagonist

Of 287 developers who shipped a Female-Led Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 418 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×818 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 418 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 418 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 287
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $13k → $4.7k → $3.6k → $9.7k → $3.3k → $3.1k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 287
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,223)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $388,606)
Developers, 2 yr 287
Released games 694
Announced 418
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 159,270 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 141 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 418 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hades II 2025 · $103M 嗜血印 Bloody Spell 2022 · $26M Returnal™ 2023 · $12M Crypt of the NecroDancer 2015 · $11M Homeworld 3 2024 · $9.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Cinderia · EA $17.99 4,763 88% 143k $2.6M (exactly $2,570,591) MyACG Studio
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Garden of Witches $18.99 1,978 92% 59k $1.1M (exactly $1,126,867) Team Tapas
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
Touhou Dystopian $9.99 2,161 97% 65k $648k (exactly $647,652) Kay Lnk
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.