Do I ship it?

GamesJob SimulatorJob Simulator + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Job Simulator?

Job Simulator + Fantasy

Only 19 developers shipped a Fantasy Job Simulator in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tabletop Game Shop Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×394 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Job Simulator + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $3.8k → $11k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Job Simulator + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,985)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $187,056)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 30
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Job Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Job Simulator; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Shop Keeper
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,409 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Job Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + NatureStrong odds21 devs · median $38k · 19 announced
  3. + CollectathonStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds18 devs · median $23k · 6 announced
  6. + Inventory ManagementStrong odds69 devs · median $15k · 62 announced
  7. + CraftingStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  8. + Shop KeeperStrong odds101 devs · median $13k · 122 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectStrong odds17 devs · median $11k · 21 announced
  10. + CapitalismFair72 devs · median $23k · 75 announced
  11. + EconomyFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  12. + Immersive SimFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced

All 42 pairs on the Job Simulator page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Tabletop Game Shop Simulator $12.99 480 84% 14k $187k (exactly $187,056) Ludogram, Knight Fever Games
Fishing Paradiso older $14.99 301 91% 9.0k $135k (exactly $135,360) Odencat
Dealer's Life Legend $14.99 271 81% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Abyte Entertainment
While the Iron's Hot older $19.99 188 80% 5.6k $113k (exactly $112,744) Bontemps Games
K-pop Idol Stories: Road to Debut $19.99 175 53% 5.3k $105k (exactly $104,947) Wisageni Studio
Critter Café $9.99 266 72% 8.0k $80k (exactly $79,720) Sumo Digital
Emma's Armaments older $12.40 66 45% 2.0k $25k (exactly $24,552) Caro Builders
Enchanted Blacksmith · EA older $9.99 75 80% 2.3k $22k (exactly $22,478) Tanuki Sun
Craft. Sell. Goblin. Repeat. · EA $11.99 50 98% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,985) Adrià Raventós
Tiny Bakery $9.99 59 89% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Bubbly Games
Cosplayer's Quest $17.99 20 45% 600 $11k (exactly $10,794) ぢゅぱり屋本舗別館
Pretty Sweet! Healing Guardian $3.99 49 100% 1.5k $5.9k (exactly $5,865) BerryLemonade Studio
Penny for Your Potion · EA $9.99 18 94% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Last Minute Studios
Beebo & Luna $5.99 21 95% 630 $3.8k (exactly $3,774) Dorimora

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.