Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Economy game?

Economy + Turn-Based Combat

Of 36 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1010 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 60 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 60 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $22k → $99k → $4.2k → $1.3k → $989 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $634k (exactly $634,151)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 85
Announced 60
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 22,078 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Master of Magic older $39.99 1,023 71% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,227,293) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
九州:立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Retro Arcade Shop Simulator · EA $9.99 208 88% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Alt Tab Game
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Magic Inn · EA $14.99 68 82% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Purpledoor Studios
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.