Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Economy game?

Economy + Turn-Based

Only 16 developers shipped a Turn-Based Economy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $61k, ×96 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×36776 the market median. Revenue is up 2810% on the market; 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 96.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2810% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $301k → $55k → $13k → $187k → $767k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $61k (exactly $60,570)
Top 25% $767k (exactly $766,544)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,095,425)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 83
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2810% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Turn-Based; all of the top 25% also carry 4X, Grand Strategy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 34,482 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $61k, 1 in 4 over $760k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Old World older $39.99 6,002 82% 180k $7.2M (exactly $7,200,599) Mohawk Games
Democracy 3 older $24.99 6,245 73% 187k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,876) Positech Games
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
The Battle of Polytopia older $14.99 4,731 94% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,127,531) Midjiwan AB
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Warnament $12.99 479 84% 14k $187k (exactly $186,666) Luden.io
吾皇万岁 $4.99 422 68% 13k $63k (exactly $63,173) AI GAME STUDIO
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Fortune Avenue · EA $6.99 63 84% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) Binogure Studio 🐺
Drill Rift $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Steam Veil Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.