Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Economy game?

Economy + Transportation

Of 60 developers who shipped a Transportation Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×9.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×753 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 128 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 128 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $1.1M → $21k → $43k → $11k → $6.8k → $11k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,865)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,846)
Top 5% $473k (exactly $472,682)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 179
Announced 128
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Transportation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 12,892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Ore Factory Squad ⛏️ $12.99 1,646 87% 49k $641k (exactly $641,446) threeW
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
Cabin Crew Life Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) SOGA Std
Heavy Cargo - The Truck Simulator $24.99 222 53% 6.7k $166k (exactly $166,433) tox² interactive GmbH
Factory Town 2: Paradise · EA $24.99 151 89% 4.5k $113k (exactly $113,205) Erik Asmussen
Super Loco World - Cozy Train Automation $9.99 329 76% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,601) Andrii Bychkovskyi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.