Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Economy game?

Economy + Trading

Of 288 developers who shipped a Trading Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 521 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $570k, ×922 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 521 games are announced against 211 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 521 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 288
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $22k → $4.6k → $15k → $31k → $8.4k → $3.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 288
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $45,205)
Top 5% $579k (exactly $578,757)
Developers, 2 yr 288
Released games 604
Announced 521
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Trading; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 181,179 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 117 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 521 games are announced against 211 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Retro Rewind - Video Store Simulator $19.90 10,118 95% 304k $6.0M (exactly $6,040,446) Blood Pact Studios
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.